A young girl stands near the devastation of the central Philippine city of Tacloban. © IOM 2013 (Photo by Conrad Navidad) 

By Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

The challenge of climate change is one that most characterizes our times and will continue to do so in the future. The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)[1] and the reports of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on the status of the global climate[2] and on the concentration of greenhouse gases[3] give us results that are unequivocal and based on multiple evidences: the temperature of the atmosphere and of the ocean continues to increase, ice caps and glaciers around the world steadily decline, the global mean sea level is rising.

Human influence on the climate system is beyond any doubt: the global concentration of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to rise. In April 2014, for the first time, the monthly concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere throughout the northern hemisphere have reached another record value: 400 parts per million (ppm)[4]. As IPCC scenarios clearly show, continuing with the current reliance on fossil fuels will definitively lead to a warmer planet. Limiting the global warming to less than 2 °C can still be achieved, but it requires a rapid significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change is exacerbating extreme weather events and pressures over vital resources such as water, food, energy. This leads to tensions, conflicts and movement of people that undermine peace and security as well as the efforts in moving towards a greener economy and a more sustainable development. According to a recent report published by WMO and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) of the Université catholique de Louvain[5], from 1970 to 2012, 8 835 disasters, 1.94 million deaths and US$ 2.4 trillion of economic losses were reported globally as a result of droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones, storm surges, extreme temperatures, landslides and wildfires, or by health epidemics and insect infestations directly linked to meteorological and hydrological conditions.

Water stress is already high, especially in developing countries and climate change is adding to this challenge. If addressed inadequately, the management of water resources will jeopardize progress on poverty reduction, food security and nutrition targets, and sustainable development in all economic, social and environmental dimensions. Water scarcity triggers migration, refugees, situations where basic human rights are weakened or threatened.

In the last decades, global mean sea level rise has accelerated and with the increased decline of the Arctic and Greenland ice sheet mass, the possibility of future sea level rise of 1 meter or more by 2100 cannot be excluded. As a recent article in the IOM Environmental Migration Newsletter has voiced[6], Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as Kiribati, Tuvalu or the Maldives face the real prospect of submergence and complete abandonment during this century. Many countries in Asia and Africa are also highly threatened owing to low levels of development combined with rapid population growth in coastal areas and inadequate capacity to adapt.

The Climate Summit of 23 September 2014, an initiative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, offers an opportunity we cannot miss. The Summit is aimed primarily at mobilizing support from government, business, finance and civil society leaders in view of the negotiations for the new climate agreement that will take place in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. There is expectation that the Summit will help to mobilize additional investments and in particular accelerate the operationalization and capitalization of the Green Climate Fund. Also, the Summit will showcase and enhance climate action in high-impact areas at all levels — local, national and global. More effective action is needed in the areas of energy, short-lived climate pollutants, cities and transportation, land-use, adaptation and disaster risk reduction, as well as in climate finance and the economic drivers that cut across these and other climate-related sectors.

As the head of a scientific and technical organization that is also the co-sponsor of IPCC, I wish to underline the role science plays in this process. Together with UNESCO and UNITAR, WMO will organize at the Summit a thematic session on “Climate Science” and also sponsor a Private Sector Forum. To advance climate action, we indeed need to capitalize on the key findings of climate science, those that society can rely on with confidence, to inform policies and actions for reducing emissions and building climate resilience.  We should be guided by the best available scientific knowledge to manage climate risks and exploit opportunities, for example new jobs in the green economy. We need also to reflect on the most effective ways of communicating climate change science in order to educate, motivate and empower people, something we may have not yet achieved as effectively as required.

Indeed, differences between regional exposures and vulnerabilities to natural disasters of hydrometeorological origin also bring about issues of equity in the context of climate change and its impacts. As a matter of fact, there are serious concerns about the abilities of many countries, particularly developing countries, to adapt to climate variability and climate change. Climate services — the provision of climate products or advice to assist decision-making — are one of the most crucial tools to cope with them both. Yet, present capabilities in climate services fall far short of meeting current and future needs and delivering their full and potential benefits. Nearly 70 countries around the world, mostly least developed countries, do not have the capabilities to generate and apply climate information. In most developing countries, observations that are critical for understanding the climate and producing predictions and projections into the future are actually decreasing.

These difficulties are particularly true, for example, for SIDS. On 1–4 September 2014, the 3rd International Conference on SIDS will take place in Apia, Samoa. Climate change and disaster risk management are among the areas on which a reinforced global partnership needs to be forged. By nature of their geographic location and very small physical and economic size, SIDS have an inherent vulnerability to natural and man-made disasters. The levels of economic growth of many SIDS is negatively affected by the impacts of climate change, including changing patterns of extreme weather such as increased severity of cyclones, storm surges, heavy rain and drought and slow onset processes such as sea level rise and ocean acidification. Due to the insufficient resilience of SIDS to such disasters, the scale of disasters is often not localized, rather it is amplified, resulting in already limited resources being redirected from other social, economic and infrastructure development activities to almost solely relief and reconstruction efforts.

Foundation investments by SIDS in disaster risk reduction, including early warning systems for severe weather and climate extremes, and climate adaptation supported by information products and services based on climate predictions targeting critical sectors (agriculture and fisheries, health, tourism) are therefore critical towards building resilient communities, safeguarding total produced capital at risk and enhancing economic and infrastructural viability, thus facilitating the sustainable development and well-being of people living in SIDS, reducing the possible effects of relocation and migration.

The Global Framework for Climate Service (GFCS)[7] — an initiative of the United Nations adopted by the World Meteorological Congress in 2012 after the call of the 3rd World Climate Conference in 2009 — aims at moving the world in a new era of climate information and services to transform knowledge into action. For example, climate predictions and seasonal climate outlooks and forecasts can help to make critical water management decisions — design of long-term infrastructure, storage of water in anticipation of a water shortage, or release of water in anticipation of flood conditions. Climate Outlook Forums are being successfully organized in various subregions of the world to produce seasonal climate predictions.

These predictions have proven to be increasingly useful and indeed have been used effectively in the case of management of shared water resources. In agriculture, use of seasonal forecasts can provide information ahead of time to assist farmers to mitigate the impacts of droughts and floods. For example, selecting crop varieties that are resistant to drought or changing the type of activities in a given year can enable farmers to improve their yields and better adapt to climate variability and climate change impacts on food availability and food security.

In West Africa, WMO has trained more than 7,000 farmers to use weather and climate information to improve their productivity and therefore also reduce the chances of abandonment of their lands. Climate services provide critical information for prevention and contingency planning against climate and weather extremes that can result in disasters. Thanks to the collaboration between meteorological and emergency services we are today better prepared to save lives from weather disasters. For example, in Bangladesh the losses of lives from major tropical cyclones and storm surges have been reduced from around 300 000 in 1970, to 140 000 in 1991, to less than 3 500 in 2007 — largely thanks to improved early warning systems and preparedness[8].

The 3rd UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction will be held from 14 to 18 March 2015 in Sendai City, Japan, to address ways and means of building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. Natural disasters are a major cause of displacement and migration. The framework for action that will follow the one adopted in Hyogo in 2005 will certainly have to contribute to the coherence and mutual reinforcement in national policies on disaster risk reduction and climate, define a global framework for early warning systems, risk assessment and management, and, as in the case of SIDS, facilitate voluntary commitments that yield multiple benefits in disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation and sustainable development.

To advance in climate action, we need to look at the interdependences between different sectors. For example, climate conditions are also very influential on some of the most virulent infections: temperature, precipitation and humidity can determine the reproduction, survival and biting rates of the mosquitoes that transmit malaria and dengue fever. Equally, water-borne diseases like cholera are at heightened risk due to warmer temperature improving pathogen survival rates. To better understand the relationship between climate and health and assist governments, health services and the public to take protective actions against health risks related to climate, WMO has joined forces with the World Health Organization (WHO). In 2012, we jointly published the Atlas of Health and Climate[9], as an example of the benefits that can arise when health and climate services work together. Our collaboration continued and, starting in 2013, the project “Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa”, funded by Norway, is supporting Tanzania and Malawi in the development of climate services for agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction and health. WHO is partner in this interagency project and leads the health component, which aims to support the development and implementation of strategies to address climate-exacerbated diseases such as malaria, cholera and meningitis. To facilitate implementation WHO and WMO have also established a joint project office at WMO.

To conclude, I wish to reiterate that supporting least developed countries, SIDS and other vulnerable developing countries to strengthen climate resilience and social stability must be a priority. In this context, we should work towards the development of sound national capabilities in climate services and early warning. This will enable to inform climate policies and adaptation approaches through scientific information, free and open access to data and transfer of technology. By promoting a culture of cooperation and inclusiveness, climate information and services can help to build more climate-resilient societies and economies and empower communities and individuals to adapt to climate change on an equitable basis, and to take up peace, security and development challenges. It is our expectation that the Climate Summit will mobilize the necessary support from the global community to address with more intensity the challenge of climate change and its impact, including displacement and migration of vulnerable people. I trust that IOM will continue to raise awareness on this critical subject.