© International Rice Research Institute

An Interview with IDMC Senior Advisor Justin Ginnetti

IOM: Could you tell us about your work for the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) and Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)?

Ginnetti: Drought-related displacement is really hard to measure. It is much more complex than displacement related to other hazards because droughts don't knock down one's home, and their impacts are usually felt after a delay, and in combination with lots of other human-related factors. As a result neither IDMC nor anyone else has been able to measure this phenomenon using existing methods and tools. So, we developed a mathematical (system dynamics) model that can capture all of the complexity of drought impacts as they cascade through different systems (climate/weather, ecosystems, livestock production, markets, livelihoods), resulting in displacement. The initial stage of this work was just completed, and we presented the results on Wednesday at the Nansen Initiative Horn of Africa consultation in Nairobi.

IOM: What is the major limitation of traditional methodologies when it comes to assessing the influence of environmental factors on migration in SIDS?

Ginnetti: The modelling methodology that we used for droughts is also really useful for capturing the myriad factors that affect SIDS. The first thing people think of is sea level rise and associate displacement with the loss of territory. In fact, it is much more complicated than that. Climate change-induced sea level rise influences not only coastal erosion, but agricultural production, which in turn has a knock-on effect on food supply. The food supply is also composed of fisheries production, but fisheries production impacted by other climate change impacts, such as changes in sea surface temperature, ocean acidification and the depletion of oceanic oxygen. (For example, some recent research indicates that the global fish populations are vulnerable to ocean acidification, which makes fish swim towards rather than away from their predators.) As countries lost the capacity to produce food domestically, they in turn need to import more food from abroad--which makes them even more vulnerable to price spikes than they currently are. And SIDS are already vulnerable to price spikes. When global food prices rose in 2008, there were demonstrations and riots in some SIDS. This has an impact on countries' balance of payments, leading to debt, which means it's more difficult for the country to feed itself. These countries are also net water and energy importers, and as energy prices go up and down they are also vulnerable to those changes. The list goes on (see attached diagram). Making things even more complicated, all of these factors are occurring over different time scales--some are already happening, some will be felt in 2020, some in 2050 and some in and after 2100. So, ultimately, it's just more complicated than sea level rise and loss of territory.

IOM: What are the main gaps in the data and analysis that prevent creation of effective national and international policy?

Ginnetti: There are lots of data gaps and challenges. Everything from downscaling global and regional climate models to national scales, to the lack of historical impact data against which to calibrate and build confidence in models. Whether this has an effect on national and international policy development is another matter, which depends upon how much policy is actually using the evidence available. Too often it isn't. And even if the laws and policies exist, such as in the Philippines for example, countries don't always implement them as well as they could.

IOM: In the Context of SIDS and climate change what are the main factors that influence the decision to move?

Ginnetti: In SIDS, we are still developing our conceptual model of mobility, but there are lots of factors (as described above). One thing we know is that people aren't going to wait until their home is under water before deciding to move. Climate change will impact their food security, their income, and their assets--i.e., their livelihoods--first, and at some point the impacts of climate change on those factors will compel people to leave. Until we can build the full model, we won't know which factors are the most important.

IOM: What is system dynamic modelling and how could it help policy makers in SIDS to take informed decisions?

Ginnetti: System dynamics modelling is based on the premise that some phenomena are characterized by two kinds of complexity: detail complexity and dynamic complexity. Detail complexity means that there are lots of factors to keep track of, and that these factors are influenced by more than one factor and that they might in turn affect more than one other factor. Dynamic complexity has to do with these interactions, in things like reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, delays, and so forth, which produce different kinds of behaviours (S-shaped growth, logistic growth/decline, oscillation, and combinations of these). This approach is useful for policymakers in SIDS because a system dynamics model can tell them what they need to worry about at different time scales. In the near future, they might need to focus on food, energy and water security, and if they don't manage these challenges effectively then these problems may compel people to leave long before sea level rise begins to make the islands "disappear."

OM: Has IDMC already collected data on SIDS?

Ginnetti: In preparation for a SIDS model, we have already begun collecting some data: mostly data on demographics, agricultural and fisheries productivity, imports and exports, and so forth.

IOM: How SIDS could benefit from system dynamic modeling? Could you provide some examples (e.g. Kenya)?

Ginnetti: A system dynamics model could help people in SIDS to remain in their homes for as long as possible, if that is the priority. And it could also indicate where the tipping points might be--letting people know that they are approaching them far enough in advance to allow for migration with dignity and more adaptive migratory movements.

IOM: Why is the partnership between NRC/IDMC and IOM important and how SIDS could benefit from it?

Ginnetti: NRC/IDMC and IOM have a great partnership, which has involved a lot of sharing of data by IOM and analysis of it by NRC/IDMC. It would be great to work more closely with IOM on a SIDS model to help governments develop and implement their development, DRR and climate change adaptation plans.